Nitish after Modi: Guha’s wish is likely to remain a pipe dream

Three recent incidents point to an unsettling scenario in Indian politics and the phenomenal divisions across the political sphere in India. The first incident was the inevitable start of yet another investigation of the Yadav family of Bihar; the beginning of yet another prolonged, protracted legal investigation into the misdeeds of the erstwhile feudal lords of Bihar. This incident has major ramifications for a large group of national political parties, who are dreaming of stitching together a coalition of parties which will challenge Modi and his BJP in the upcoming national elections. Such an alliance can seem to be formidable for at least eating votes away from the BJP and reducing its margin in crucial states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, if not outrightly winning the elections. However, the investigation into a major partner’s underhand dealings puts it at risk, and is likely to drive a wedge into it before talks of a large alliance begins.

The second incident is the overwhelming mandate Narendra Modi received from a reputable survey organization such as the OECD, which found that nearly 73% of the people surveyed still trusted Modi and his administration, and that too in a scenario where globally, the trend is dismal. The U.S., U.K., South Korea are all major global players where trust in government and government institutions declined. Modi is among the few leaders who enjoy a great deal of confidence among his citizens. This is especially significant at a time when the nation’s media and intellectuals are dead against the government for most of its policies. Demonetization, farmers’ suicides, the beef ban and the lynching of Muslims, trouble in Kashmir and the border standoff with China, all are areas where the Modi government has been severely criticized by the opposition. Regarding questions such as the beef ban and the lynchings, the protests have not translated into comprehensive action by the government.

In such a scenario, it is telling that Modi gained such a major thumbs up in a large survey. It points to a time in politics where the ideas of the left-liberals have proven utterly incapable at swaying the thoughts of people at the grassroots, and that people still probably consider the Left liberal political and intellectual class as a cabal of journalists, scholars and politicians ensconced in Lutyens’ Delhi and commenting on the problems of rural and disenfranchised India without ever moving outside its gated communities. Two small examples, not representative or generalizable in any way, point to how perceptions of the reality are extremely different among sections of society. I was in Bihar right after the declaration of demonetization. Visiting many rural villages and interacting with locals in the town, the amount of anger against demonetization did not seem as high as it was touted to be elsewhere. This is not to say that people did not suffer; they did suffer and there was unhappiness about it. But it was also true that in a small town of Bihar where most of the population was not economically well-off, there was no palpable seething anger against demonetization, rather, it was in tune of what Modi was saying; finally, there was someone without vested interests taking bold steps against corruption. 

The narrative in the media about the people suffering due to demonetization are not false or untrue, rather, it seems from the opinion of many noted scholars that demonetization was an unnecessarily rash and counterproductive move. However, the BJP narrative of it being a bold, anti-corruption crusade blunted the academic criticism against it. The second incident was in Mumbai, where a noted liberal author was to visit a left-leaning organization working for getting lower socioeconomic women into the education system. Much to the organization staff’s chagrin, the girls vehemently supported the Modi government and some even praised the Late Bal Thackeray and his politics.

It is somewhat surprising that the studied, pervasive narratives of a large section of the media do not translate into a change of opinion against the government. But then, we need to remember that this is a government and Prime Minister which have gone over the heads of traditional media and spoken directly to the people and spoken through their Mann ki Baat, their closed, insular WhatsApp groups where counter-narratives do not exist and through Facebook memes which are circulated and believed without question.

Commenting on this lack of rectitude among the current opposition, Ramachandra Guha suggested that Nitish Kumar, a leader without a party platform would be a great choice for the Congress to hand over its leadership to. The arrangement, he noted, would be very complimentary. The Congress would get a credible leader, while Kumar would get a party machinery he can utilize to counter Modi in 2019. However, here is where the narrative of the Left slips from its moral ground. What will a nationwide Left, anti-BJP alliance look like? It will include the likes of Lalu Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Mayavati, the Samajwadi Party and of course, Congress leaders from multiple states among many others. The problem is the questionable morals and records of most of these parties. Most such as Lalu, Mamata, Mayavati, the SP and their leaders of the likes of Azam Khan and their ilk are precisely the people that voters have very recently rejected. Bihar was not a representative example of people rejecting Modi’s governance, for it contained a powerful combination of Lalu’s sway over his caste bloc and Nitish’s own formidable reputation as an administrator which still stands.

More problematically, Nitish will probably be well aware of the kind of mess he will get into if he decides to helm such an alliance. That is exactly the kind of government Manmohan Singh had to helm, and that ultimately led to him being labeled, somewhat unfairly, as an indecisive, rubber stamp Prime Minister who was actually dictated to by a clique of state leaders seeking to cement their positions in their own states, while trying hard to reap the profits of being in power. Most of them such as Mamata Banerjee and M. Karunanidhi worked to fill their own war chests and springboard themselves to positions of leadership in their states. Banerjee succeeded, while Karunanidhi was ignominiously thrown out of power.

The Congress is out of power because of a reason. It had the ears and attention of a large section of Indian politicians and people. After five years of a much less controversial Vajpayee rule, the nation’s voters had handed the power back to the Congress because it had rejected the BJP and its ‘shining’ posturing in 2004. However, the absolute lack of direction in the last five years of its rule, the ever-emerging corruption scandals and the stubborn arrogance of the Congress in not even censuring the tainted politicians of their government led to their ouster. Guha’s request for Rahul Gandhi to step down will probably be ignored, or some minor conciliatory gestures will be made. The party will never part with the family, just as the grand alliance that the Left dreams of will not hesitate to include people such as Lalu Yadav, Mayawati and the SP. In such a case, it will be extremely easy for the BJP to point to Lalu’s misdeeds, the “statuesque” corruption of Mayawati, the large irrigation scandals of the Congress-NCP combine in Maharashtra, and of course, the misogynistic and deplorable statements of a lot of SP leaders. In such a scenario, when so many of its alliance partners have large chinks in their moral, ethical and legal armour, it is unlikely they will be able to stand a chance against Modi at least in 2019. 

This is not to say that the BJP administration is unblemished, but in the battle of perceptions, the BJP has not lost any major ground against its opponents, and that is mainly what counts in an election. Even the antics of folks such as Yogi Adityanath, the cow vigilantes and the scandalous resignations of ministers such as Eknath Khadse have not been enough to seriously blemish the reputation of the government.

Modi is unlike most leaders India had in recent times. Although not universally, we can safely say that in the eyes of many people in India, Modi carries the tag of an honest man, a man who is striving and working tirelessly to provide good governance to India. Another asset he ironically has, is the extremely harsh criticism he has faced throughout his tenure as CM and even before and after the elections. It is extremely hard to find a point which can turn the minds of millions of his followers, or to find a point where his supporters will not be able to say, “The Congress and Left did it too.” Moreover, all of the criticism labeled at him has mostly been said before. The current lot of senior political leaders arrayed against Modi are seen as a decadent batch of privileged hegemons, who squandered the moral rectitude of their ancestors who led India and its states in the first decades after independence. As a sampler, it is worthwhile to note the recent crackdown against Lalu Yadav and his family and the manner in which the secular, liberal alliance has reacted. Sonia Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, even possibly Arvind Kejriwal are likely to join in at the rally where Tejashwi Yadav will allegedly provide a point-to-point rebuttal of the allegations against him.

If we pause at this point, we can see that Modi will have enough ammunition from this rally alone to decimate those who oppose him. On the dais of this rally, will be an array of national leaders, at an event organized by a party whose head is one of the few leaders convicted and jailed of his crimes in a country like India, where politicians are rarely, if ever convicted. The rally is of a party which still welcomes out of jail, a strongman who allegedly drenched two young men in acid, who shot at and killed multiple police officers and who is still a medieval warlord of sorts in his hometown of Siwan. Finally, the rally is of a party which nearly no one, apart from Lalu’s caste considers worth bringing to power again.

Counter this with Modi, who considering the above description seems better suited to appropriate the names of Mahatma Gandhi and Ambedkar, and whose simple statement against those lynching in the name of cows, said once in a year at a significant event is enough to lay to rest most of the criticism labeled against him and any senior leadership of his party. The strength and weakness of the Modi brand lies on this moral rectitude that has been so rare in recent Indian politics. For his supporters, he is an impeccable leader, the Hindutva nature of his party and the inevitable presence of some corrupt leaders in his party aside. Until the moral sway and the incisive means of communication he has mastered are intact, no alliances and academic criticism will be able to dent Modi. As for Guha’s dream of Nitish being at the helm of this alliance, it is likely that Nitish will be extremely circumspect of being at the center of such an alliance. He will most likely remember the sullen face of Manmohan Singh and all the unruly criticism labeled against the brilliant man. He surely will not appreciate ending his career so ‘accidentally’.

What does having such a weak opposition in the face of such a controversial leader bode for India? It does not bode too well. Even if it is considered that Modi simply has the best of India’s interests at heart, it is extremely worrying to visualize the domination he will have over Indian politics and society if his winning streak continues unabated. 

The opposition cannot be salvaged by Nitish Kumar or by the departure of Rahul Gandhi alone. What the Congress and its allies need to do is rebuild its credibility by systematically and effectively studying and questioning the government’s policies to improve them, prevent juvenile displays of petulance and protest at every juncture, and rid themselves of all the liabilities in the form of tainted leaders. Secondly, the opposition needs an effective communication network that can counter Modi. In the age of social media, Modi is able to create a buzz through the multiple modes of communication available to him. The opposition needs to either replicate or counter it effectively. India’s political parties need to get back the attention and trust of the millions of people that they squandered during their decade in power. It is either that, or waiting for the BJP to commit tactical errors in its governance..